I divari territoriali nel ricorso delle imprese a moratorie e garanzie pubbliche durante la pandemia (Regional Divides in Firms’ Take-up of Bank Debt Moratoria and Public Guarantee Schemes During the Pandemic in Italy) (preprint)

Italian Abstract: Nel periodo compreso fra giugno 2020 e dicembre 2021, il ricorso alle misure a sostegno della liquidità delle imprese introdotte a seguito della pandemia di Covid-19 ha presentato una distribuzione non uniforme sul territorio nazionale. Le differenze sono riconducibili solo in parte alla diversa struttura produttiva territoriale. A parità di caratteristiche osservabili delle imprese, la quota di aziende beneficiarie di moratorie sul totale è stata simile nel Centro Nord e nel Mezzogiorno, mentre l’incidenza di soggetti che si sono avvalsi dei prestiti garantiti è risultata maggiore nel Mezzogiorno. Coeteris paribus, l’intensità dell’aiuto, ossia la quota di credito assistito dalle misure per le imprese che vi hanno fatto ricorso, è stata più elevata nel Mezzogiorno per le moratorie, a fronte di una sostanziale omogeneità per le garanzie pubbliche. Il divario nel ricorso alle misure di sostegno alla liquidità potrebbe riflettere un beneficio relativamente più elevato per le aziende meridionali, generalmente soggette a condizioni di accesso al credito più stringenti. English Abstract: At the onset of the pandemic, the Italian government introduced a bank debt moratorium and a public guarantee scheme to support firms’ liquidity; additional private moratoria were introduced by banks and other financial institutions. The take-up of such measures in the June 2020-December 2021 period was heterogeneous across areas. Such differences can only be partially explained by heterogeneity in the regions’ economic and productive structure: differences in firms’ observable characteristics can explain the differential take-up in debt moratoria, while the probability of obtaining a publicly guaranteed loan is larger for Southern firms. Coeteris paribus, aid intensity - i.e. the share of a beneficiary’s bank debt subject to the support measures - is higher for Southern firms in the case of debt moratoria, but not for publicly guaranteed loans. This regional divide may reflect a relatively higher benefit associated to the measures for Southern firms, which are subject, on average, to tighter credit access conditions.

Violencia de la pareja íntima a la mujer: daño psicológico durante la pandemia COVID-19 (preprint)

Durante el COVID-19 hubo un incremento de la violencia de la pareja íntima (VPI) hacia las mujeres. En la República Dominicana se realizó un estudio, durante la pandemia, para evaluar el daño psicológico en las mujeres VPI y determinar la relación entre los tipos de violencia experimentados y la sintomatología de ansiedad, depresión, trastorno de estrés postraumático (TEPT) y autoestima. Metodología: El estudio fue transversal, descriptivo y correlacional con una muestra de 96 mujeres que buscaron ayuda psicológica. Resultados: La edad media fue 33.6. Hubo una correlación entre la violencia sexual y ansiedad, así como entre la violencia económico-patrimonial con la violencia física y la violencia sexual. La gran mayoría de los síntomas correlacionaron entre sí, excepto la reexperimentación con autoestima. Conclusión: La salud mental de las mujeres víctimas VPI se ve comprometida debido a la comorbilidad de los síntomas presentados.

Analisi della variazione dei principali parametri di qualità dell'aria durante la pandemia da COVID-19 (preprint)

L’inquinamento atmosferico può essere definito come la presenza in aria di una o più sostanze in concentrazione tale da avere la potenzialità di produrre un effetto avverso. Concorrono all’inquinamento  fattori, quali l’antropizzazione del territorio, le interazioni chimico-fisiche che avvengono tra sostanze in atmosfera e le condizioni meteorologiche. Per far fronte alla tutela della qualità dell’aria sono stati introdotti degli Strumenti legislativi che pongono limiti alle emissioni nazionali, alle concentrazioni degli inquinanti in aria e obbligano Stati, Regioni e Province autonome a predisporre Piani per il risanamento dell’aria in caso di non conformità con i parametri prestabiliti. La valutazione della qualità dell’aria è effettuata attraverso le reti di monitoraggio, ossia punti di misura dislocati sul territorio secondo criteri e metodi definiti. L’obiettivo del presente studio è l’analisi approfondita dei dati di qualità dell’aria per la valutazione degli effetti delle differenti misure restrittive attuate per far fronte all’emergenza sanitaria da Sars-CoV-2. Nello specifico, le analisi sono state condotte mediante il confronto dei dati di qualità dell’aria dell’anno 2020 rispetto all’anno 2019 registrati nelle Regioni Campania, Emilia-Romagna e Piemonte. I risultati hanno consentito di confermare come, generalmente, il lockdown abbia contribuito ad una significativa riduzione in termini di concentrazioni di ossidi di azoto.

The impact of digitalization on poverty alleviation in Africa (preprint)

ABSTRACT & RÉSUMÉ & ZUSAMMENFASSUNG : Digitalization in Sub-Saharan Africa enhanced the accessibility of communications by the majority of the poor who had been excluded among others from social media, independent information channels, mobile banking and e-commerce. The creation of new economic opportunities, e.g. the pay-as-you-go business, and increased flow of information also boosted people’s self-esteem, sense of belonging and citizenship. The smartphone became the main source of internet access which also bridged the divide between urban and rural communities. Thus, mobile telecommunications contributed positively to economic growth even in less developed regions, and there is apparently still ample space for further improvement. Yet, Africans were also confronted with new forms of the digital divide between the poor and the rich, between advanced and less advanced African countries, as well as between Africa and the rest of the world. Moreover, the digitalization of the public sphere became a double-edged sword. Autocratic governments like Sudan and Togo shut down the internet during elections to facilitate the rigging of the polls. The lack of transparency and objectivity fuelled fake news which rapidly spread in social media, notably in times of the Corona crisis. Last, but not least, not everybody surfing in the internet had the same access to quality information. For example, disinformation was supported clandestinely by foreign powers to destabilize political regimes, or spy software was provided to governments to control the opposition. Both false news in social media and spy-software impeded poverty relieve in Africa significantly. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RÉSUMÉ : La numérisation en Afrique subsaharienne a amélioré l'accessibilité des communications par la majorité des pauvres qui avaient été exclus, entre autres, des médias sociaux, des canaux d'information indépendants, des services bancaires mobiles et du commerce électronique. La création de nouvelles opportunités économiques, par ex. l'activité par répartition et l'augmentation du flux d'informations, ont également renforcé l'estime de soi des personnes, leur sentiment d'appartenance et de citoyenneté. Le smartphone est devenu la principale source d'accès à Internet, ce qui a également permis de combler le fossé entre les communautés urbaines et rurales. Ainsi, les télécommunications mobiles ont contribué positivement à la croissance économique, même dans les régions les moins développées, et il y a apparemment encore amplement de place pour de nouvelles améliorations. Pourtant, les Africains ont également été confrontés à de nouvelles formes fossé digital entre les pauvres et les riches, entre les pays africains avancés et moins avancés, ainsi qu'entre l'Afrique et le reste du monde. De plus, la numérisation de la sphère publique est devenue une arme à double tranchant. Des gouvernements autocratiques, comme le Soudan et le Togo, ont fermé Internet pendant les élections pour faciliter le trucage des élections. De plus, le manque de transparence et d'objectivité a alimenté les fausses informations qui se sont rapidement propagées sur les réseaux sociaux, notamment en période de crise de COVID-19. Enfin, tout le monde qui navigue sur Internet n'a pas le même accès à des informations de qualité. La désinformation était soutenue clandestinement par des puissances étrangères pour déstabiliser les régimes politiques, ou des logiciels espions fournis aux gouvernements pour contrôler l'opposition. Les fausses nouvelles dans les médias sociaux et les logiciels espions ont entravé la pauvreté en Afrique de manière significative. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ZUSAMMENFASSUNG : Die Digitalisierung in Subsahara-Afrika verbesserte Kommunikations-Zugang für die Mehrheit der Armen, die bis dahin unter anderem von sozialen Medien, unabhängigen Informationskanälen, Mobile Banking und E-Commerce ausgeschlossen waren. Die Schaffung neuer wirtschaftlicher Möglichkeiten, z.B. das Umlageverfahren und der verstärkte Informationsfluss, stärkten auch das Selbstwertgefühl, das Zugehörigkeitsgefühl und das Nationalbewußtsein der Menschen. Das Smartphone wurde zur Hauptquelle des Internetzugangs, der auch die Kluft zwischen urbanen und ländlichen Gebieten überbrückte. Damit trug der Mobilfunk auch in weniger entwickelten Regionen positiv zum Wirtschaftswachstum bei, und es gibt offenbar noch viel Raum für weitere Verbesserungen. Afrikaner wurden aber auch mit neuen Formen der digitalen Kluft zwischen Arm und Reich, zwischen entwickelten und weniger entwickelten afrikanischen Ländern sowie zwischen Afrika und dem Rest der Welt konfrontiert. Zudem wurde die Digitalisierung der Öffentlichkeit zu einem zweischneidigen Schwert. Autokratische Regierungen wie der Sudan und Togo haben das Internet beispielsweise während der Wahlen abgeschaltet, um Wahlfälschung zu erleichtern. Zudem befeuerte der Mangel an Transparenz und Objektivität insbesondere in Zeiten der Corona-Krise fake news, die sich in den sozialen Medien rasant verbreiteten. Nicht zuletzt hatte nicht jeder, der im Internet surfte, den gleichen Zugang zu qualitativ hochwertigen Informationen. Desinformation wurde zudem oft heimlich von ausländischen Mächten unterstützt, um politische Regime zu destabilisieren, oder den Regierungen Spionagesoftware zur Verfügung gestellt, um die Opposition zu kontrollieren. Sowohl Desinformation in sozialen Medien als auch Spionagesoftware haben die Armutsbekämpfung in Afrika erheblich behindert.

L'Agricoltura Urbana e Sistemi Acquaponici per lo sviluppo sostenibile nelle politiche dell'economia circolare (preprint)

A causa della rapida urbanizzazione, della crescita della popolazione, del cambiamento climatico e dell’inquinamento ambientale, la sicurezza alimentare e la sostenibilità sono diventate una preoccupazione primaria che deve essere affrontata a livello globale. La recente pandemia da COVID-19 ha avuto un impatto sull’approvvigionamento alimentare interrompendo la catena di distribuzione alimentare e in conseguenza anche l’aumento ulteriore dei prezzi. Da queste circostanze è emerso la necessità e il bisogno di coprire l’approvvigionamento alimentare con prodotti locali. Inoltre, la crescente preoccupazione degli effetti dell’inquinamento ambientale e dell’uso intensivo dei terreni agricoli con pesticidi e composti chimici, il consumatore propende a scegliere prodotti alimentari sani, freschi e rintracciabili. L’agricoltura urbana emerge come strumento alternativo per garantire sicurezza alimentare, sostenibilità sociale, economica e ambientale. Il ventaglio dei diversi approcci dell’agricoltura urbana offre opportunità di costruire fonte di reddito alternativo come per esempio le serre sui tetti a coltivazione idroponica di famose realtà statunitensi, oppure crea possibilità di inclusione sociale e attività ricreativa come l’ampiamente diffusa e consolidata tecnica degli orti urbani, o ancora a tecnologia come l’acquaponica che rispetta appieno i requisiti dell’economia circolare. L’acquaponica è riconosciuta dalle numerose potenzialità da quella di garantire cibo sano e sicuro all’ottimizzazione delle risorse. Mostra la prospettiva per lo sviluppo sostenibile della produzione alimentare nelle aree urbane e può fungere da elemento essenziale dell’infrastruttura urbana sostenibile nella futura visione delle città. Nonostante le potenzialità dell’agricoltura urbana e di sistemi come l’acquaponica, esistono ancora alcune lacune che ostacolano lo sviluppo di modelli produttivi pienamente integrati nel quadro di un’economia circolare, e che devono essere risolti per ottenere un sistema produttivo semplice da usare, rispettoso dell’ambiente che genera pochi o nessun rifiuto ed è anche in grado di riutilizzare i rifiuti prodotti da altri sistemi esterni. Inoltre, la mancanza di una legislazione specifica e armonizzata relativa ai settori come l’acquaponica e idroponica nell’UE pone freno e vincoli ai possibili investitori. La necessità di una revisione degli standard biologici dell’UE al fine di incoraggiare l’ulteriore sviluppo di tale tecnologia e che permetterebbe di applicare prezzi premium con il fine di rendere redditizia le attività imprenditoriali è di enorme importanza. Anche nel campo della pianificazione urbanistica e edilizia è necessario uno slancio verso l’integrazione dell’agricoltura urbana nel tessuto della città. Sono poche i casi in cui l’agricoltura urbana è applicata appieno in termini commerciale e urbanistici come per esempio New York. Nell’ambito italiano le autorità sono lontane nell’applicare l’agricoltura urbana fatta l’unica eccezione dell’introduzione quasi consolidata degli orti urbani nei regolamenti comunali con l’uso esclusivamente sociale e senza fine di lucro. L’architettura e l’urbanistica avranno il compito di cambiare la visione delle città e di costruire spazi nei quali consentire nuove relazioni con le pratiche agricole.

European Central Bank and Banco de España Measures Against the Effects of COVID-19 on the Monetary Policy Collateral Framework, and Their Impact on Spanish Counterparties (Las medidas del Banco Central Europeo y del Banco de España contra los efectos del COVID-19 en el marco de los activos de garantía de política monetaria, y su impacto en las entidades españolas) (preprint)

English Abstract:In March and April 2020, the European Central Bank adopted a series of monetary policy measures aimed at providing liquidity support to the financial system and facilitating access to financing for the real economy to mitigate the adverse economic effects of COVID-19. Some of these measures focused on preserving and expanding the universe of assets that counterparties can use as collateral to participate in Eurosystem financing operations. This paper, after a brief summary of the collateral framework for monetary policy operations, studies the measures adopted in this connection by the European Central Bank and the Banco de España and their impact on Spanish counterparties. This study finds that, in overall terms, two measures stand out over the others in terms of the amount of collateral provided: the acceptance of partially government-guaranteed credit claims and the reduction in haircuts. Although all counterparties have been affected by the measures, the extent of the impact has differed widely, determined by the characteristics of the assets used as collateral and their management. Finally, the interaction between the different measures is analysed, since more than one can affect the eligibility and valuation of the same asset.Spanish Abstract:Durante los meses de marzo y abril de 2020, el Banco Central Europeo (BCE) tomó una serie de medidas de política monetaria destinadas a proporcionar apoyo de liquidez al sistema financiero y facilitar el acceso a la financiación a la economía real para mitigar los efectos económicos adversos del COVID-19. Algunas de esas medidas se centraban en mantener y aumentar el universo de activos que las entidades de contrapartida pueden usar como garantía para participar en las operaciones de financiación del Eurosistema. Este documento, después de hacer un breve resumen del marco de activos de garantía de las operaciones de política monetaria, estudia las medidas adoptadas en ese ámbito por el BCE y por el Banco de España, y su impacto entre las entidades de contrapartida españolas. De este ejercicio se concluye que, en términos globales, en cuanto al importe de garantías aportadas, dos medidas destacan sobre las demás: la admisión de los préstamos parcialmente avalados por el Estado y la reducción de los recortes aplicados al valor de los activos. Si bien todas las entidades se han visto afectadas por las medidas, el alcance ha sido muy diferente entre ellas y ha estado determinado por las características de los activos utilizados como garantía y por la gestión de estos. Por último, se analiza la interacción entre las distintas medidas, puesto que varias de ellas pueden afectar a la elegibilidad y a la valoración de un mismo activo.

Regional excess mortality during the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic: a study of five European countries (preprint)

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on excess mortality from all causes in 2020 varied across and within European countries. Using data for 2015-2019, we applied Bayesian spatio-temporal models to quantify the expected weekly deaths at the regional level had the pandemic not occurred in England, Greece, Italy, Spain, and Switzerland. With around 30%, Madrid, Castile-La Mancha, Castile-Leon (Spain) and Lombardia (Italy) were the regions with the highest excess mortality. In England, Greece and Switzerland, the regions most affected were Outer London and the West Midlands (England), Eastern, Western and Central Macedonia (Greece), and Ticino (Switzerland), with 15-20% excess mortality in 2020. Our study highlights the importance of the large transportation hubs for establishing community transmission in the first stages of the pandemic. Acting promptly to limit transmission around these hubs is essential to prevent spread to other regions and countries.

Economía colombiana en medio del paro nacional 2021 y la recuperación pospandemia (Colombian Economy in the Midst of the 2021 National Strike and Post-Pandemic Recovery) (preprint)

Spanish Abstract: Este documento de la División de Análisis Macroeconómico continúa analizando la respuesta de la economía colombiana a las condiciones de convivencia con la pandemia COVID-19 y a los choques presentados en el frente social con el Paro Nacional durante el segundo trimestre de 2021. Pese a que el proceso de recuperación enfrentó retos relevantes, la apertura establecida en las principales ciudades en junio mostró que la economía tiene una alta capacidad de adaptación y al final del segundo semestre volvió a los niveles de operación más fuertes desde la llegada de la pandemia. Los principales retos en el mediano plazo están en el mejoramiento de las condiciones de bienestar social, pues si bien la producción está reaccionando, los rezagos en el mercado laboral son mayores.English Abstract: This document from the Macroeconomic Analysis Division continues analyzing the response of the Colombian economy to the conditions of coexistence with the COVID-19 pandemic and to the shocks presented on the social front with the National Strike during the second quarter of 2021. Although the recovery process faced relevant challenges, the opening established in the main cities in June showed that the economy has a high capacity to adapt and at the end of the second semester it returned to the strongest operating levels since the arrival of the pandemic. The main challenges in the medium term are in the improvement of social welfare conditions, because although production is reacting, the lags in the labor market are greater.

Actitud hacia la vacuna contra el COVID-19 en Honduras: el rol de la preocupación por el virus y el sentido de pertenencia comunitaria (preprint)

El presente estudio tuvo como propósito analizar la actitud hacia la vacunación contra el COVID-19, en relación con la preocupación por el virus, el sentido de pertenencia comunitaria, y variables demográficas. Esto por medio de un enfoque cuantitativo, en una muestra de 478 hondureños. Los datos fueron recolectados por medio de cuestionarios de autoreporte. En la aplicación se incluyó la Escala de Preocupación por el COVID-19 (CAS-6), la Breve Escala de Sentido de Pertenencia Comunitaria (BESPC), así como preguntas respecto a la aceptación de la vacuna contra el COVID-19. Los resultados indican que el 8.368% de los participantes no han recibido la vacuna contra el COVID-19, 44.979% han recibido una dosis y el 46.653% han recibido dos dosis de la vacuna. La mayor parte de los encuestados (86.820%) tienen una alta aceptación hacia la vacuna contra el COVID-19, únicamente 13.180% de los participantes reportaban bajos niveles de aceptación. Una mayor aceptación de la vacuna está asociada a la cantidad de dosis recibidas. Se realizó un análisis de regresión logística, por pasos, para determinar las variables que inciden significativamente sobre la actitud hacia la vacunación. Las variables independientes incluidas fueron: edad, sexo, diagnóstico previo de COVID-19, CAS-6 Preocupación Personal, CAS-6 Gravedad Percibida y Sentido de Pertenencia Comunitaria. Los resultados indican que la Gravedad Percibida del COVID-19 y la edad del informante son predictores positivos estadísticamente significativos de la aceptación hacia la vacunación por el COVID-19. El resto de las variables independientes hipotéticas resultaron no significativas.

Comment la gratuité de l’enseignement atténue et exacerbe les effets de la pandémie de Covid-19 en RDC (How the Free Education Reform Mitigates and Exacerbates the Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic in DRC) (preprint)

French Abstract: En septembre 2019, les frais d'études, qui servaient (entre autres) à payer les enseignants non rémunérés par l’Etat, ont été officiellement supprimés dans les écoles primaires de la DR Congo. Quelques mois plus tard, le gouvernement fermait les écoles pour 4 mois et demi à cause de la pandémie de Covid-19. À l'aide d'une enquête auprès de 822 enseignants et 715 parents d’élèves conduite avant et après le confinement et de 157 entretiens qualitatifs dans la province du Sud-Kivu, nous montrons que la réforme « Gratuité » semble avoir à la fois atténué et exacerbé les effets des restrictions liées à la pandémie. Dopés par la gratuité, l’effectif scolaire et les relations entre enseignants-fonctionnaires et parents restent stables –et ce malgré l’absence presque totale d’enseignement pour les plus démunis pendant la période de fermeture. Cependant, les privations additionnelles et le stress de la pandémie rendent encore plus intenable la position des non-fonctionnaires, qui quittent la profession en nombre et, par-là, menacent la stabilité du système éducatif. La durabilité des réformes visant la gratuité, spécialement en contexte de crises répétées, ne peut se faire en l’absence d’une ambitieuse et inclusive refonte des ressources humaines. English Abstract: In September 2019, school fees, which were used to pay teachers not paid by the State (among others), were officially abolished in DR Congo's primary schools. A few months later, the government closed schools for four and a half months due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Using a survey of 822 teachers and 715 parents conducted before and after the closure and 157 qualitative interviews in South Kivu province, we show that the free education reform seems to have both mitigated and exacerbated the effects of the pandemic-related restrictions. Boosted by gratuity, school enrolment and relations between teacher-staff and parents has remained stable -despite the almost total absence of education for the poorest during the closure period. However, the additional deprivation and stress of the pandemic has made the position of non-staff teachers even more untenable, as they leave the profession in large numbers, thereby threatening the stability of the entire primary education system. The sustainability of free education reforms, especially in the context of repeated crises, cannot eschew complementary, similarly ambitious, and necessarily inclusive human resources reforms.

Indice de la situación de la pandemia (Index of the Pandemic Situation) (preprint)

Spanish abstract: En este documento presentamos el Indice de situación de la pandemia de la Covid19 y mostramos su evolución en España y las comunidades de Madrid y CataluñaEnglish abstract: In this document we present the Situation of the Covid19 pandemic Index and we show its evolution in Spain and the regions of Madrid and Catalonia.

Inteligencia Artificial, Compliance y Derecho del Consumo Estructuras de gobernanza empresarial y estatal frente al empleo de algoritmos durante la pandemia y más allá. (Artificial Intelligence, Compliance and Consumer Law. Corporate and State Governance Structures Facing the Use of Algorithms during the Pandemic and Beyond) (preprint)

Spanish Abstract: El empleo masivo de datos y decisiones algorítmicas en los procesos de producción y comercialización de bienes y servicios y, en su extremo, el uso de Inteligencia Artificial (IA), es una tendencia creciente cuya velocidad se ha disparado durante la crisis sanitaria de la Covid 19 en 2020. Estructuralmente, más allá de la aceleración de coyuntura, no es previsible que esa tendencia revierta a niveles precedentes. El grado de integración de esas tecnologías a los procesos destinados al consumo es tal que, regular cada uno de sus aspectos contingentes (machine learning, IA, etc.) por separado, puede ser insuficiente y hasta atentar contra el éxito de los propósitos del Derecho de Consumo. La introducción de la electricidad en el mercado puede servir de analogía: en un momento fue una innovación particularmente útil y peligrosa pero no parecería, hoy, razonable, a los fines del Derecho del Consumo, distinguir procesos de producción y comercialización que la emplean y otros que no; exigir la presencia de un funcionario responsable de la electricidad dentro de la empresa para el caso de utilizarla o una agencia estatal de supervisión de productores profesionales que la utilizan. Al contrario, parece más adecuado regular los sistemas de producción y comercialización asumiendo que estarán consustancialmente impregnados y determinados por aquellas tecnologías: tanto la ya antigua electricidad, cuando la novedosa IA. El nivel de complejidad que tales tecnologías introducen en aquellos procesos determina que la estrategia de compliance de Derecho del Consumo, conjuntamente con instrumentos jurídicos tradicionales, heterónomos (sanciones penales y administrativas, responsabilidad civil), sea preferible por sobre el desempeño de esos últimos sin combinación con la primera. Las conclusiones de la Economía de los Costos de Transacción y consideraciones conductuales que se apartan del modelo económico Neoclásico abonan la preferibilidad de esta posibilidad. La empresa no es una estructura trasmisora transparente de los incentivos impuestos por los costos privados derivados de las sanciones heterónomas, hacia los individuos que la componen. Esa transmisión es imperfecta y asincrónica, lo cual puede incrementar significativamente los costos sociales. El momento en que se dé el monitoreo de las decisiones empresarias y la posibilidad de influir en esa esfera, los mecanismos de circulación interna de la información y las modalidades de aplicación de normas de alta indeterminación resultan factores relevantes, respecto de los cuales las estrategias puramente heterónomas más tradicionales pueden lidiar solo deficientemente.English Abstract: The massive use of data and algorithmic decisions in processes of production and marketing of goods and services and, ultimately, the use of Artificial Intelligence (AI), is a growing trend whose speed has skyrocketed during the COVID-19 health crisis in 2020. Beyond the pandemic, the reversion of this trend is not predictable. The degree of integration of these technologies into processes aiming to consumption is such that regulating each of their contingent aspects (machine learning, AI, etc.) may be inappropriate and even, may jeopardize the success of the purposes of consumer law. The introduction of electricity in the market can serve as an analogy: at one time it was a particularly useful and dangerous innovation. However, nowadays it would not seem reasonable, for the purposes of Consumer Law, to distinguish production and marketing that use electricity and others that do not; to require the presence of an official responsible for electricity within the company or a specific consumer agency supervising firms who use electric power in their operation. On the contrary, it seems more appropriate to design the Consumer Law assuming that production and marketing will be inherently impregnated by those technologies: both the old electricity and the new AI. The level of complexity that new data technologies introduce in those processes determines that internal compliance strategies, together with traditional, heteronomous legal instruments (criminal and administrative sanctions, civil liability), is preferable over the performance of the latter without the former. The conclusions of Transaction Cost Economics and behavioral considerations that depart from Neoclassical economic basis support the preferability of this possibility. The firm is not a transparent transmitter of the incentives derived from public sanctions to its officers and employees. This transmission is imperfect and asynchronous, which can significantly increase social costs. The timing of monitoring corporate decisions and the possibility of influencing this sphere, the internal circuits of information and the particulars of application of highly indeterminate rules are relevant factors with respect to which the more traditional heteronomous strategies can cope only poorly.

Empoderamiento de mujeres participantes del programa de alivio a la pobreza Emprendiendo una Vida Mejor en Honduras: análisis cualitativo (Empowerment of Women Beneficiaries of a Poverty-alleviation Program in Honduras: A Qualitative Analysis) (preprint)

Spanish Abstract: En el año 2018, el gobierno hondureño inició la implementación del programa Emprendiendo una Vida Mejor (EVM), enfocado en reducir la pobreza extrema de hogares rurales en tres departamentos del país. Este programa está basado en el enfoque de graduación, que ha probado resultados efectivos en reducir la pobreza en varias dimensiones. El diseño, la implementación y el seguimiento del programa estuvieron acompañados por un ejercicio de evaluación que incluyó tanto análisis cuantitativo como cualitativo. En este documento se presentan los principales resultados del análisis cualitativo, con un enfoque especial en el empoderamiento de las mujeres participantes. Incluye las percepciones de las mujeres receptoras del programa como de sus compañeros y explora los efectos en acceso a recursos, agencia e impacto en varias dimensiones. Los resultados señalan mejoras en el empoderamiento de las mujeres participantes en aspectos relacionados con la toma de decisiones productivas, domésticas, financieras y de movilización, así como en cambios en el uso del tiempo en actividades domésticas y productivas. Adicionalmente, encontramos mejoras en ingresos, seguridad alimentaria del hogar, activos y actividad productiva, y cambios sustantivos en autoestima, confianza, y la capacidad de establecer metas y definir estrategias para alcanzarlas. El programa EVM otorgó resiliencia a los hogares receptores para enfrentar los efectos de la pandemia causada por el Covid y el confinamiento al que obligó.English Abstract: The Honduran government launched the Emprendiendo una Vida Mejor (EVM) program in 2018. Based on the graduation approach, which has proven effective in reducing poverty in several dimensions, EVM was designed to reduce extreme poverty among rural households in three of the country's departments. Its design, implementation, and monitoring were coupled with an evaluation exercise that included quantitative and qualitative analysis. This paper presents the main results of the qualitative analysis, focusing on the empowerment of women participants. It investigates the perceptions of both women program recipients and their spouses and explores the effects on access to resources, agency, and impact in several dimensions. The results indicate that the women participants are more empowered in aspects related to productive, domestic, and mobility-related decision-making, as well as in terms of changes in their use of time in domestic and productive activities. We also found improvements in income, household food security, assets and productive activity, and substantive changes in self-esteem, confidence, and the ability to set goals and define strategies to achieve them. The EVM program provided resilience to recipient households to cope with the effects of the Covid pandemic and the confinement it enforced.

How COVID-19 Changed Our Saving Habits? (preprint)

English Abstract: Recent pandemic, there have been numerous impact on our behavior. The paper has two conceptual lines, one descriptive information about pandemic data, and the second or main line is a about our saving interests.French Abstract: La récente pandémie a eu des nombreux impacts sur notre comportement. Le article a deux lignes conceptuelles, une information descriptive sur les données de pandémie, et la deuxième ligne principale concerne nos intérêts d'épargne.

Report 2021 on Trends and Risks of the Italian Financial System in a Comparative Perspective (Rapporto 2021 sulla congiuntura e i rischi del sistema finanziario italiano in una prospettiva comparata) (preprint)

English Abstract: The report analyses the dynamics of financial markets in the first half of 2021, highlighting the main vulnerabilities in the context of the crisis triggered by the pandemic in Europe and the development of sustainable finance and crypto assets at a global level. The Report includes eight sections. Section 1 shows the impact of the crisis on economic activity. Section 2 analyses the monetary and fiscal policy measures adopted by national and European authorities to tackle the negative effects of the crisis. Sections 3 and 4 examine equity and bond market trends, respectively. The next three sections analyse the impact of the crisis on non-financial corporations, banks and households. The last Section reports the main trends in the mutual fund industry.During the first half of 2021, in developed countries progress in Covid-19 vaccination campaigns, the loosening of anti-pandemic restrictions, and economic policies adopted to counter the crisis helped restore confidence in the improvement of economic situation. In June, however, the spread of the Delta variant fuelled renewed uncertainty, also in view of the developments relative to the completion of the vaccination cycle (in Italy al the end of July, about 60% of the population was immunized). Economic activity is expected to recover over the year, albeit to different degrees across areas and countries. In the Eurozone, whose growth is estimated to be lower than global growth, Italian GDP is expected to return to its pre-crisis levels only in 2022, after Germany and France. Meanwhile, the pandemic triggered risk factors that add to pre-existing vulnerabilities. In particular, the level of both public and private debt increased. Domestic fiscal policies to support the economy led to a significant deterioration in public finances. In addition, household and corporate debt rose. In Italy, the ratio of public debt to GDP is expected to reach a level significantly higher compared to the Eurozone average at the end of 2021 (159% and 102%, respectively), while the ratio of private debt to GDP, although on the rise, at the end of 2020 remains well below the average values observed in other countries. Financial markets are easing recovery. As for equities markets, in the euro area, along with the positive trends there are signs of a possible misalignment between market valuations and the fundamental values of listed companies, less marked in the banking sector compared to the non-financial sector as well as less pronounced in Italy compared to that estimated for the Eurozone. As for non-equity markets, both primary and secondary markets of sovereign bonds keep experiencing tranquil conditions. With regard to corporate debt securities, in 2020 net issuance of bank bonds fell to zero, reaching the lowest level of the decade, while those of non-financial companies remained at positive levels. On the secondary market yields remain low, although on the rise with respect to the end of 2020. Due to pandemic, over 2020 large non-financial listed companies recorded a sharp drop in revenues and, overall, a worsening in income and financial conditions. Therefore, vulnerabilities of major listed firms heightened compared to the previous year. The share of companies with income and financial indicators worsening compared to their ten-year average has in fact increased. Overall, the most resilient large companies in terms of income, leverage and liquidity represent less than 4% of the total in Italy and less than 5% in Europe. During 2020, banks in major European countries experienced a decline in income margins and, on the other hand, an improvement of capital adequacy. In Italy, major listed banks recorded an increase in the core tier 1 ratio of around two percentage points compared to 2019. Credit quality also improved. For major Italian banks the ratio of non-performing loans to the total fell from 7% to 4%, as a consequence of significant loan sales. However, banks remain exposed to the risk of a deterioration in asset quality, due to the weak economic environment, especially with respect to exposures to sectors hit hard by the crisis. Between 2019 and 2020, the gross savings rate of Italian households, while remaining below the Eurozone average, experienced a sharp increase (from 10% to 18%) that should only be partially reabsorbed in the current year. Thanks also to the dynamics of stock and bond prices recorded in the financial markets in the second and third quarters of 2020, the net wealth of Italian households grew, although remaining below figures for Germany and France. As for the composition of financial assets, the weight of liquidity increased, which at the end of 2020 recorded a YoY change at its highest level since 2015 (+7%), in line with the dynamics observed in the euro area. At the end of 2020, liquid assets in portfolio of Italian households amounted to more than €1,500 billion, equivalent to about 91% of GDP and 2.5 times the total capitalisation of the MTA and AIM Italy (€600 billion and €6 billion respectively). Trading activity on financial instruments by Italian retail investors has intensified from 2020 onwards, particularly in equities and mutual funds. In March 2020 alone, while equity markets were experiencing severe turbulence due to the health emergency, the amount of net stock purchases hit about €3 billion, compared to the 2019 monthly average of net sales amounting to €470 million. In recent years, interest in crypto assets has grown significantly, especially among the youngest, as shown by available data on the number and age distribution of users globally. In particular, in 2021, the prices of cryptocurrencies rose significantly, including Bitcoin, which has the largest market share in terms of total capitalisation. Similarly to all cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin is characterised by a very high marked volatility, which is significantly higher than that of traditional investment options. A further critical issue is related to the way cryptocurrencies are traded and the underlying technologies. Transition to a sustainable development model is a top priority in the agenda of policy makers. One of the pillars of the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF), the main instrument of the Next Generation EU (NGEU) programme, is green transition, as at least 37% of expenditure has to be related to climate and other environmental objectives. In addition, as part of the announced diversified financing strategy on the capital market of NGEU, the European Commission announced that at least 30% of the total bond issues will be green bonds. This measure will help boost the market of green bonds, whose issuance in the first half of 2021 more than doubled compared to the same period last year, thanks to sovereign issuers. Within such framework, Europe has long played a leading role, with new bond issues accounting for around 60% of the global aggregate as of June 2021. Italy, whose contribution remains lower than that of the major European countries, nevertheless shows a considerable increase. Europe is also a major contributor to the development of the ESG fund sector: as of March 2021, there were some 3,500 European funds, with total assets amounting to more than €1,600 billion (over 80% of the global figure). A similar trend can be observed in Italy, where at the end of the first quarter of 2021 the number of ESG funds stood at 1,210 (517 at the end of 2020), while the assets promoted reached €276 million (81 at the end of 2020). The issue is of great importance for the banking system too, which, in response to pressure from regulators and supervisory authorities, is called upon to assess its exposure to sectors vulnerable to physical and transition risk, linked respectively to climate changes and to possible corrections in market values of assets triggered, for example, by restrictive regulation hitting sectors with higher levels of CO2 emissions.Italian Abstract: Il Rapporto esamina le dinamiche dei mercati finanziari nel primo semestre del 2021, evidenziando le vulnerabilità manifestatesi nel contesto della crisi innescata dalla pandemia, e approfondisce alcuni profili relativi allo sviluppo della finanza sostenibile e alle cripto attività. Il documento si articola in otto sezioni. La Sezione 1 illustra l’impatto della crisi sull’attività economica. La Sezione 2 analizza le risposte di politica monetaria e fiscale predisposte dalla Autorità e dai Governi nazionali ed europei per contrastare gli effetti negativi della crisi. Le Sezioni 3 e 4 esaminano rispettivamente l’andamento dei mercati azionari e obbligazionari. Le successive tre Sezioni analizzano le ripercussioni della crisi rispettivamente su società non finanziarie, banche e famiglie. La Sezione 8 riporta, infine, le evoluzioni in atto nel settore dei fondi comuni di investimento.Nel primo semestre 2021, nei paesi avanzati i progressi registrati nelle campagne di vaccinazione contro il Covid-19, l’allentamento delle misure di contenimento del contagio e le politiche economiche adottate per contrastare la crisi hanno contribuito a ripristinare un clima di fiducia nel miglioramento della congiuntura economica. Nel mese di giugno la diffusione di una nuova variante del virus, denominata Delta, ha alimentato una rinnovata incertezza, anche a fronte degli sviluppi relativi al completamento del ciclo vaccinale (in Italia, a fine luglio risulta immunizzato circa il 60% della popolazione). L’attività economica è prevista in ripresa nel corso dell’anno, sebbene in misura eterogenea tra aree e paesi. Nell’Eurozona, la cui crescita si stima inferiore a quella globale, il PIL italiano dovrebbe ritornare ai livelli pre-crisi solo nel 2022, dopo Germania e Francia. Nel frattempo, la pandemia ha innescato fattori di rischio che si aggiungono alle vulnerabilità preesistenti. È aumentato il livello di indebitamento sia pubblico sia privato. Le politiche di bilancio domestiche a sostegno dell’economia hanno determinato un significativo peggioramento delle finanze pubbliche. È cresciuto il debito di famiglie e imprese. In Italia, il rapporto tra debito pubblico e PIL dovrebbe portarsi a fine 2021 su un livello significativamente maggiore alla media dell’Eurozona (rispettivamente, 159% e 102%), mentre l’incidenza del debito privato sul PIL, sebbene in crescita, a fine 2020 rimane ampiamente al di sotto della media degli altri paesi. A fronte della ripresa dei corsi azionari, nell’area euro emergono segnali di un possibile disallineamento tra le valutazioni di mercato e i valori fondamentali delle società quotate, meno pronunciato nel settore bancario; in Italia tale tendenza sembra più contenuta rispetto a quella stimata per l’Eurozona. Nei mercati dei titoli del debito sovrano continuano a prevalere condizioni distese sia sul primario sia sul secondario. Nel 2020 le emissioni nette di obbligazioni bancarie si sono azzerate, toccando il minimo del decennio, mentre quelle delle società non finanziarie sono rimaste su livelli positivi; sul mercato secondario i rendimenti si mantengono bassi ma in crescita. Per effetto della pandemia, nel 2020 le maggiori società non finanziarie quotate nei principali paesi europei hanno registrato una forte contrazione dei ricavi e, nel complesso, un deterioramento delle condizioni reddituali e finanziarie. Le vulnerabilità delle grandi imprese quotate risultano accentuate; la quota di società con indicatori reddituali e finanziari in peggioramento rispetto alla propria media decennale è cresciuta. Le grandi imprese più resilienti in termini di redditività, leverage e liquidità rappresentano meno del 4% del totale in Italia e meno del 5% in Europa. Nel corso del 2020 le banche dei maggiori paesi europei hanno visto un calo dei margini reddituali; si è invece rafforzata l’adeguatezza patrimoniale degli istituti europei e, in particolare, delle banche italiane (+2% del core tier 1 ratio rispetto al 2019). È migliorata la qualità del credito. Per le maggiori banche italiane l’incidenza dei crediti non-performing sul totale è passata dal 7% al 4%, principalmente grazie alle significative operazioni di cessione dei crediti. Gli istituti bancari restano esposti al rischio di un deterioramento della qualità degli attivi, connesso alla difficile congiuntura economica e tanto più marcato quanto maggiore è l’esposizione verso i settori più colpiti dalla crisi. Tra il 2019 e il 2020 il tasso di risparmio lordo delle famiglie italiane, pur continuando a rimanere al di sotto della media dell’Eurozona, ha sperimentato un forte incremento (dal 10% al 18%). Grazie anche alla dinamica dei mercati finanziari nel secondo e nel terzo trimestre del 2020, la ricchezza netta delle famiglie italiane è cresciuta. È aumentato il peso della liquidità sulle attività finanziarie, che alla fine dello scorso anno ha registrato un tasso di variazione tendenziale al massimo storico dal 2015 (+7%), in linea con le dinamiche osservate nell’area euro. A fine 2020, le disponibilità liquide nel portafoglio delle famiglie italiane ammontavano a oltre 1.500 miliardi di euro, pari al 91% circa del PIL e a 2,5 volte la capitalizzazione complessiva di MTA e AIM Italia (rispettivamente 600 e 6 miliardi di euro). Le negoziazioni degli investitori retail italiani su strumenti finanziari hanno registrato a partire dai primi mesi del 2020 un’attività più intensa, in particolare su azioni e fondi comuni; nel mese di marzo 2020, mentre i mercati azionari sperimentavano forti turbolenze per effetto dell’emergenza sanitaria, gli acquisti netti di azioni si sono attestati a circa 3 miliardi di euro, a fronte di una media mensile di vendite nette pari, per il 2019, a circa 470 milioni di euro. Negli ultimi anni, è cresciuto in maniera significativa l’interesse verso le cripto attività, soprattutto tra i più giovani, come mostrano i dati disponibili a livello globale. Nel 2021 hanno registrato un rialzo rilevante le quotazioni delle cripto valute e, tra queste, del Bitcoin, al quale è riferibile la maggiore quota di mercato in termini di capitalizzazione complessiva. Al pari di tutte le cripto valute, il Bitcoin si caratterizza per una marcata volatilità delle quotazioni, significativamente più elevata rispetto a quella delle opzioni di investimento tradizionali. Un’ulteriore criticità è legata alla modalità di scambio delle cripto valute e alle tecnologie sottostanti. La transizione verso un modello di sviluppo sostenibile è un tema prioritario nell’agenda dei policy makers. Uno dei pilastri del Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF), strumento principale del programma Next Generation EU (NGEU), è la transizione ecologica, a cui deve essere allocata una quota minima delle spese pari al 37% del totale. Inoltre, nell’ambito dell’annunciata strategia di finanziamento diversificata sul mercato dei capitali di NGEU, la Commissione europea ha indicato l’emissione di titoli green nella misura pari almeno al 30% del totale. Le emissioni di green bonds nel primo semestre 2021 sono più che raddoppiate rispetto allo stesso periodo dell’anno precedente, grazie all’ingresso nel mercato degli emittenti sovrani; l’Europa svolge un ruolo trainante, con emissioni pari al 60% circa dell’aggregato globale; l’Italia, il cui contributo rimane inferiore a quello dei maggiori paesi europei, registra una crescita molto elevata. A marzo 2021 si contano circa 3.500 fondi ESG europei, con un patrimonio complessivo superiore a 1.600 miliardi di euro (80% del dato globale); in Italia il numero di fondi ESG è pari a 1.210, con un patrimonio di 276 milioni di euro. Il tema è anche all’attenzione del sistema bancario, che deve valutare la propria esposizione ai settori vulnerabili al rischio fisico e al rischio di transizione, legati ai cambiamenti climatici e alle emissioni di CO2.

The Socio-Economic Impact of Brexit on India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka in Times of Corona (preprint)

English Abstract: Following the Brexit, London endorsed a CANZUK union with its former white settler colonies, Canada, Australia and New Zealand. This was meant as a valuable alternative to replace lost EU-market access. In contrast, non-white former British dominions – whether big (like India, Pakistan) or small (like Sri Lanka) were left on their own. The Indian Government perceived the Brexit vote initially as rather unfortunate because it would increase global instability and a weakening of the West. Indian multinationals like 'Tata', however, which had invested heavily in Britain as their gateway to Europe, saw Brexit as an economic risk. Later on, New Delhi realised also eventual policy advantages in Britain leaving the EU. The Brexit impact on Pakistan’s economy remained small so far. However, Islamabad would be well advised to formulate separate policies for post-Brexit Britain and the remaining EU-27. Sri Lanka's economic and political ties with the UK, on the other hand, are considerably stronger than with any EU country. Annual trade with the UK amounted to over 10 %. Therefore, Brexit impacted negatively on the Sri Lankan economy. Changes to strengthen economic relations with the UK to overcome post Brexit challenges were imperative. As for the COVID-19 pandemic, it soon became in all three countries not just a health emergency but also a social and economic crisis. Given the historic responsibility of the UK as a former colonial power and the renewed commitment of London to international free trade principles, it seems at least debatable whether the British government should not consider all its former colonies as equal partners concerning its foreign trade policy and grant them the same rights and facilities.French Abstract: À la suite du Brexit, Londres a approuvé une union CANZUK avec ses anciennes colonies de colons blancs, le Canada, l'Australie et la Nouvelle-Zélande. Cela se voulait une alternative valable à la perte d'accès au marché de l'UE. En revanche, les anciens dominions britanniques non blancs – qu'ils soient grands (comme l'Inde et le Pakistan) ou petits (comme le Sri Lanka) ont été laissés à eux-mêmes. Le gouvernement indien a d'abord perçu le vote sur le Brexit comme plutôt malheureux car il augmenterait l'instabilité mondiale et un affaiblissement de l'Occident. Cependant, des multinationales indiennes comme « Tata », qui avaient massivement investi en Grande-Bretagne comme porte d'entrée vers l'Europe, ont vu dans le Brexit un risque économique. Plus tard, New Delhi a également réalisé des avantages politiques éventuels en Grande-Bretagne quittant l'UE. L'impact du Brexit sur l'économie pakistanaise est resté faible jusqu'à présent. Cependant, Islamabad serait bien avisé de formuler des politiques distinctes pour la Grande-Bretagne post Brexit et le reste de l'UE-27. Les liens économiques et politiques du Sri Lanka avec le Royaume-Uni, en revanche, sont considérablement plus forts qu'avec n'importe quel pays de l'UE. Le commerce annuel avec le Royaume-Uni s'élevait à plus de 10 %. Par conséquent, le Brexit a eu un impact négatif sur l'économie Sri Lankaise. Des changements visant à renforcer les relations économiques avec le Royaume-Uni pour surmonter les défis post-Brexit étaient impératifs. Quant à la pandémie de COVID-19, elle est rapidement devenue dans les trois pays non seulement une urgence sanitaire mais aussi une crise sociale et économique. Compte tenu de la responsabilité historique du Royaume-Uni en tant qu'ancienne puissance coloniale et de l'engagement renouvelé de Londres envers les principes du libre-échange international, il semble pour le moins discutable si le gouvernement britannique ne devrait pas considérer toutes ses anciennes colonies comme des partenaires égaux concernant sa politique de commerce extérieur et accorder les mêmes droits et facilités.German Abstract: Neben dem Brexit befürwortet London eine CANZUK-Partnerschaft mit seinen ehemaligen weißen Siedlerkolonien Kanada, Australien und Neuseeland. Dies sah London als wertvolle Alternative zum verlorenen EU-Marktzugang. Im Gegensatz dazu wurden nicht-weiße ehemalige britische Herrschaftsgebiete – ob groß (wie Indien und Pakistan) oder klein (wie Sri Lanka) – sich selbst überlassen. Die indische Regierung empfand das Brexit-Votum zunächst als eher unglücklich, weil es die globale Instabilität und eine Schwächung des Westens erhöhen würde. Indische multinationale Konzerne wie „Tata“, die stark in Großbritannien als Tor nach Europa investiert hatten, sahen den Brexit jedoch als wirtschaftliches Risiko. Später erkannte Neu-Delhi auch eventuelle politische Vorteile beim Austritt Großbritanniens aus der EU. Die Auswirkungen des Brexit auf die pakistanische Wirtschaft blieben bisher gering. Islamabad wäre jedoch gut beraten, eine separate Politik für Großbritannien und die verbleibenden EU-27 nach dem Brexit zu formulieren. Die wirtschaftlichen und politischen Beziehungen Sri Lankas zum Vereinigten Königreich sind dagegen deutlich stärker als zu jedem anderen EU-Land. Der jährliche Außenandel mit Großbritannien betrug über 10 %. Daher wirkte sich der Brexit negativ auf die srilankische Wirtschaft aus. Veränderungen zur Stärkung der Wirtschaftsbeziehungen mit dem Vereinigten Königreich zur Bewältigung der Herausforderungen nach dem Brexit waren zwingend erforderlich. Die COVID-19-Pandemie entwickelte sich in allen drei Ländern schnell von einem Gesundheitsnotstand zu einer sozialen und wirtschaftlichen Krise. Angesichts der historischen Verantwortung Großbritanniens als ehemaliger Kolonialmacht und des erneuten Bekenntnisses Londons zu internationalen Freihandelsprinzipien erscheint es zumindest fraglich, ob die britische Regierung nicht alle ihre ehemaligen Kolonien als gleichberechtigte Partner in ihrer Außenhandelspolitik betrachten und ihnen gleiche Rechte und Möglichkeiten einräumen sollte.La version française de cet article peut être consultée à: http://ssrn.com/abstract=3889937

Herramientas para un Análisis Económico del Derecho Internacional Privado Argentino. La Importancia de la Autonomía, la Innovación y las Normas (Tools for an Economic Analysis of Argentine Private International Law. The Importance of Autonomy, Innovation and Norms) (preprint)

Spanish Abstract: El artículo considera una temática de muy escaso tratamiento en la literatura jurídica argentina: el análisis económico del derecho internacional privado. Analiza la eficiencia y las consecuencias jurídicas y económicas de las normas en el escenario de la globalización tecnológica, poniendo énfasis en la crisis derivada de la pandemia del COVID-19. Utiliza el enfoque interdisciplinario para analizar disposiciones del Código Civil y Comercial de la Nación Argentina y decisiones judiciales basadas en ellas a efectos de apreciar su utilidad para el estudio de las normas, su creación o eventual modificación. En esta dirección, destaca la importancia de la autonomía como punto de conexión clave para la innovación, la necesidad de contar con regulaciones acordes a efectos de canalizarla y, con todo ello, la facilitación de las situaciones y relaciones privadas internacionales.English Abstract: The article considers a topic of very little treatment in the legal literature of Argentina: the economic analysis of private international law. it analyses the efficiency and the legal and economic consequences of regulations in the scenario of technological globalization, placing emphasis on the crisis derived from the COVID-19 pandemic. It uses the interdisciplinary approach to analyze provisions of the Civil and Commercial Code of the Argentine Nation and judicial decisions based on them, in order to appreciate its usefulness for the study of the rules, their creation or eventual modification. In this direction, it highlights the importance of autonomy as a key connection factor for innovation, the need to have appropriate regulations in order to channel it and, with all this, the facilitation of private international situations and relationships.

Une année de crise COVID : impact sur la dynamique de l’activité des entreprises en France. Une évaluation sur données individuelles (Corporate Activity in France Amid the Covid-19 Crisis. A Granular Data Analysis) (preprint)

French Abstract: Nous étudions l’impact de la crise sanitaire sur l’activité de plus de 645 000 entreprises, à partir de données individuelles permettant d’estimer leur chiffre d’affaires à une fréquence mensuelle. Notre approche, fondée sur un modèle de micro-simulation, est innovante à triple titre. Premièrement, nous quantifions la perte d'activité par rapport à une situation contrefactuelle dans laquelle la crise n'aurait pas eu lieu. Deuxièmement, nous estimons ce choc au niveau individuel, permettant une analyse détaillée de l'hétérogénéité des chocs d’activité. Nous mettons en lumière la dispersion du choc à la fois entre secteurs et au sein des secteurs. Nous montrons que le secteur de l'entreprise explique jusqu'à 48% de la variance des chocs d'activité mensuels pondérés par l'emploi en 2020, soit une part beaucoup plus importante que lors d'une année normale. Enfin, nous identifions quatre profils de trajectoires, caractéristiques de l’évolution de l'activité en 2020. Le secteur est le principal déterminant d'appartenance à un profil donné. Conditionnellement au secteur, le profil de trajectoire est également corrélé à la capacité d'adaptation organisationnelle des entreprises.English Abstract: Taking advantage of detailed firm-level data on VAT returns, we estimate the monthly impact of the Covid-19 crisis on the turnover of more than 645,000 French firms. Our approach, based on a micro-simulation model, is innovative in a triple way. Firstly, we quantify the activity loss with respect to a counterfactual situation in which the crisis would not have hit. Secondly, we estimate this shock at the firm level, enabling a thorough analysis of activity loss heterogeneity throughout the crisis. In particular, we shade light on the dispersion of the shock both within and between industries. We show that the industry the firm operates in explains up to 48% of the monthly activity shocks’ variance weighted by employment, a much larger share than in a normal year. Finally, we leverage our monthly firm-level data on sales to show how corporate activity has evolved along four distinct trajectories throughout 2020. The main determinant of belonging to a given profile of activity is the firm industry – defined at a very granular level. Conditional on industry, the activity trajectory is also correlated with the ability to adapt some firms have demonstrated during the crisis in terms of organization and production.

Spillovers de la política monetaria no convencional de los países avanzados hacia América Latina (Unconventional Monetary Policy Spillovers from Advanced Economies to Latin America) (preprint)

Spanish Abstract: En este estudio se estiman los efectos de las políticas monetarias no convencionales realizadas por Estados Unidos, la Zona Euro, Reino Unido y Japón (países avanzados) en las economías de México, Brasil, Colombia, Chile y Perú mediante el uso de un modelo de proyección global con tasas de interés sombra. Se encuentra que los spillovers de nivel de la política monetaria son pequeños y los más relevantes para Latinoamérica son los provenientes de Estados Unidos. También se encuentra que los spillovers de volatilidad de las políticas monetarias no convencionales de los países avanzados son pequeños. Los ejercicios de descomposición histórica muestran que la variable más afectada por los spillovers fue la inflación. Finalmente, se simularon escenarios contrafactuales en ausencia de políticas monetarias no convencionales por parte de los países avanzados en donde se encontraron pérdidas cercanas al 0.5 % del PIB en los países latinoamericanos en 2014T4, y una inflación menor en cerca de 1.5 %. Lo anterior muestra el alto costo de no implementar estas políticas y es de particular relevancia para la crisis del COVID-19.English Abstract: In this paper, I estimate the effects of unconventional monetary policies from the United States, Euro Area, United Kingdom, and Japan (advanced economies) on Mexico, Brazil, Colombia, Chile, and Peru using a global projection model with shadow rates. I found that spillovers are small and the most relevant come from the United States. I also found that volatility spillovers from advanced economies’ unconventional monetary policies are negligible. Historical decomposition exercises show that the most affected variables by spillovers are the real exchange rate and inflation. Finally, I also simulate counterfactual scenarios in which there were no unconventional monetary policies from advanced economies past 2008, and I found that Latin American economies would have had GDP losses close to 0.5% and inflation 1.5% lower at the end of 2014. This shows the high costs of not implementing these policies and these results are relevant to the COVID-19 crisis.

Entrenamiento a distancia en modificaci n de conducta para cuidadores de ni os con desarrollo at pico: intervenci n breve durante la pandemia COVID-19 (preprint)

En el contexto de la Pandemia COVID-19, los servicios de atención especializada para personas con Trastorno del Espectro Autista y Trastornos del desarrollo se vieron interrumpidos. En este contexto, el apoyo de profesionales mediante entrenamiento en habilidades básicas de modificación del comportamiento a cuidadores se tornó indispensable. En el presente trabajo se probó la efectividad de un taller cuyo objetivo fue proveer de herramientas a padres y cuidadores de infantes para el trabajo directo con sus hijos en la enseñanza de habilidades de autocuidado y comunicación, y para el manejo de conductas no adaptativas basadas en Análisis Conductual Aplicado. Se llevaron a cabo cinco sesiones mediante videoconferencia en la cual se demostraron y practicaron distintas habilidades de manejo conductual. Los resultados mostraron que los padres mejoraron sus habilidades y dominio de principios básicos del comportamiento, además de que evaluaron de manera positiva al taller. Finalmente, se discute la relevancia de los servicios de Telesalud para facilitar el acceso a servicios especializados en situaciones de emergencia y en poblaciones sin acceso a éstos.